Issue 02 · Trade, Industry & Cost of Living

Make It in America.
Again.

Washington promised that free trade with China and offshoring would make everyone richer. Wall Street did fine. The factory towns of Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and the Carolinas got hollowed out, and the country lost the ability to make its own medicine, chips and ships.

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U.S. jobs lost to Chinese import competition, 1999–2011 (upper estimate)
Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson & Price [1]
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U.S. trade deficit in goods and services, 2024 (revised)
Census / BEA [3]
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U.S. share of global chip manufacturing capacity, down from 37% in 1990
SIA / BCG [5]
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Median age of a first-time home buyer in 2025, a record, up from 29 in 1981
National Assoc. of Realtors [7]

U.S. Manufacturing Employment (millions)

Annual averages, rounded. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics [2].

The China Shock

One Decade, Six Million Jobs

In 2000, Congress granted China permanent normal trade relations, and it joined the World Trade Organization in 2001. The promise: trade would make China freer and America richer.

What happened instead was one of the fastest industrial collapses in American history. U.S. manufacturing employment fell from about 17.3 million in 2000 to 11.5 million by 2010. Landmark research by MIT and Harvard economists found Chinese import competition alone cost an estimated 2.0 to 2.4 million American jobs between 1999 and 2011 [1].

And the losses didn't spread evenly. They hit specific towns, such as furniture in North Carolina, textiles in the Carolinas and Georgia, and electronics and auto parts across the Midwest. Follow-up studies found lasting damage in those places: lower wages, more disability claims, fewer marriages, and higher rates of overdose deaths [4].

"Not only the wealth, but the independence and security of a Country, appear to be materially connected with the prosperity of manufactures."Alexander Hamilton · Report on Manufactures, 1791
Data Explorer

The Squeeze on American Families

Choose a topic to explore the data.

Cumulative Growth Since 1979 (%)

Net productivity vs. hourly compensation of production/nonsupervisory workers, 1979–2023, rounded. Source: Economic Policy Institute analysis of BLS/BEA data [6].

Workers Produce More but Take Home Less of It

Since 1979, American workers have become roughly 80% more productive. Typical worker pay rose only about 29% over the same period. The gains went to capital, shareholders and executives, often by moving production to wherever labor was cheapest.

An America First economy measures success by the paycheck of the median worker, not by the stock market or the GDP of a global supply chain.

Median Age of First-Time Home Buyers

Source: National Association of Realtors, Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers; selected years, approximate [7].

The American Dream Is Being Priced Out

A generation ago, a young couple could buy a home in their twenties. Today, the typical first-time buyer is 40, a record high (NAR, 2025), and first-time buyers' share of the market has fallen to historic lows.

The causes are many: years of too little home building, restrictive local zoning, high interest rates driven by federal borrowing, and rapid population growth that adds demand faster than supply. Investors, including foreign buyers, have also competed with families for starter homes.

Federal Spending, FY2024 ($ billions)

Source: Congressional Budget Office, Monthly Budget Review FY2024; figures rounded [8].

Interest Now Outruns Defense

The national debt passed $38 trillion in October 2025. In FY2024, net interest on that debt ($881 billion) passed defense spending, and it kept rising to about $970 billion in FY2025.

Every dollar spent on interest is a dollar that doesn't build a road, pay a soldier or stay in a family's pocket. High federal borrowing also pushes up interest rates on mortgages and car loans for ordinary Americans.

National Debt, Live Estimate
$—

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit with China ($ billions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Trade in Goods with China; rounded [3].

Exporting Jobs, Importing Dependence

The U.S. ran a trade deficit of about $904 billion in 2024 (BEA, revised June 2025). The goods deficit with China peaked at $418 billion in 2018 and has shrunk since, partly because tariffs shifted some production to other countries.

Critics rightly point out that some imports just shifted from China to Vietnam and Mexico, sometimes with Chinese components inside. The lesson: tariffs alone aren't enough. They have to be paired with rules-of-origin enforcement and real investment in building things here.

Where Your Tax Dollars Went, FY2024

Total outlays about $6.75 trillion. Tap a row for details. Sources: U.S. Treasury (Monthly Treasury Statement, Table 9) and CBO [8], rounded.

Click any row to learn more.
Budget Explorer

Interest Is Eating the Budget

Washington spent about $6.75 trillion in FY2024 and took in about $4.9 trillion. It borrowed the difference, roughly $1.8 trillion, in a single year with no war or recession.

The America First approach: protect the earned benefits seniors paid for, cut waste and fraud aggressively, stop sending blank checks overseas, and grow the economy by bringing industry home, because a bigger tax base of well-paid American workers is the only sustainable way out.

Your Family's Debt Share →
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You Run Washington: Balance the Budget

Washington spent $6.75 trillion in FY2024 and took in $4.92 trillion. Move the sliders to cut spending or raise revenue. Can you close a $1.83 trillion gap?

Spending −30% to +30%

Revenue −20% to +30%

Revenue sliders show the change in money collected, not tax rates. Higher rates don't always raise proportionally more, because people and businesses change behavior.

Your Budget

FY2024 deficitBalanced

FY2024 figures from CBO, rounded. Illustrative only, since real changes ripple through the economy.

Clips & Primary Sources

The American System

From the very first Congress, American leaders understood that a free nation must be able to supply itself, and they built the world's greatest industrial economy on purpose.

The America First Plan

Seven Steps to Rebuild

  1. Strategic tariffs with strict rules of origin

    Protect critical industries and close the loophole of routing Chinese goods through third countries.

  2. Bring home critical supply chains

    Medicine, chips, steel, rare-earth processing and shipbuilding should be made in America or trusted allied nations.

  3. Reward companies that build here

    Full immediate expensing for factories and equipment built in the United States.

  4. Block hostile foreign ownership

    Restrict purchases of farmland, critical infrastructure and sensitive technology by adversary governments.

  5. Build more homes

    Tie federal infrastructure dollars to local zoning reform and cut red tape that blocks starter homes.

  6. Fiscal discipline

    Audit the Pentagon, cut improper payments, and end foreign aid that doesn't serve clear American interests.

  7. Train the next generation of builders

    Expand apprenticeships and trade schools. Not every good career needs a four-year degree and a mountain of debt.

Sources

  1. Acemoglu, Autor, Dorn, Hanson & Price, "Import Competition and the Great US Employment Sag of the 2000s," Journal of Labor Economics 34(S1), 2016.
  2. Bureau of Labor Statistics, All Employees, Manufacturing (CES3000000001).
  3. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services; Trade in Goods with China.
  4. Autor, Dorn & Hanson, "The China Shock: Learning from Labor-Market Adjustment to Large Changes in Trade," Annual Review of Economics, 2016; and related work on community effects.
  5. Semiconductor Industry Association & Boston Consulting Group, "Government Incentives and US Competitiveness in Semiconductor Manufacturing," 2020.
  6. Economic Policy Institute, The Productivity–Pay Gap.
  7. National Association of Realtors, Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers (2024 and historical).
  8. Congressional Budget Office, Monthly Budget Review: Summary for Fiscal Year 2024; U.S. Treasury, Debt to the Penny.
  9. U.S. Office of Naval Intelligence slide, as reported by multiple outlets in 2023.
  10. U.S. Food and Drug Administration testimony on pharmaceutical supply-chain security; U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission reports.